Market Data

Each month consumer insights platform Sightlines will share one quick hit you can use to make confident decisions. Also, ACA members get 50% off a Sightlines subscription. Find the discount code in the Resource Hub.

While alcohol has generally been in the red in most retail channels this year, cider sales in convenience stores offer a rare bright spot. Both dollar sales (+4.8%) and volume (+3.4%) are well above the negative trend lines for craft, seltzers, domestics, and even imports in Circana-tracked c-store data.

What explains the boom? Cider has finally arrived at the imperial party. In January, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) approved new standards of fill for higher-ABV cider that included 16 oz. and 19.2 oz cans. Prior to that update, those can sizes were only an option for cider under 7% ABV, excluding higher-strength cider from the single-serve can sizes that have proven so successful for imperial IPAs and high-gravity FMBs. At the time of the announcement, Jeff Parrish, co-owner of Oregon’s Portland Cider Company, called the move “a game changer,” and year-to-date sales confirm it.

But imperial cider in 19.2 oz. cans isn’t the only story line. Convenience stores’ craft beer SKU rationalization over the past year has also opened up space for higher-margin cider. And finally, cider enjoys crossover appeal with the popular RTD cocktail category—yet it may be available in c-stores where distilled spirits aren’t legally allowed. All of this presents a long runway for cider, which has yet to post numbers for October (National Cider Month), November (Thanksgiving), and December (Christmas and New Year’s Eve). We’d expect it to take an even bigger bite of the c-store apple in those final 2025 months.

Each month consumer insights platform Sightlines will share one quick hit you can use to make confident decisions. Also, ACA members get 50% off a Sightlines subscription. Find the discount code in the Resource Hub.

Non-alcoholic sparkling wines thrive on attributes that are driving other adult beverage trends: ease, versatility, and indulgence. Cidermakers are well poised to deliver on these, too—perhaps even through non-alcoholic offerings.

In a year when overall wine sales are at their lowest point in three decades, Circana data shows sales of non-alcoholic sparkling wines have increased +60%. The niche is poised for even further growth in the near future as best-selling Josh Cellars takes its zero-proof sparkling wine from limited-release markets to national sales this summer. 

What explains the boom in booze-free bubbles? They’re easy to understand and versatile to use. Unlike alcohol-free spirits such as Seedlip or wine alternatives like Proxi, they’re not asking drinkers to understand flavors and ingredients built from the ground up—they’re just sparkling wine, sans booze.

Non-alc cider can play a similar role. Like NA prosecco, it can offer a sense of celebration for people and occasions when alcohol might not feel appropriate: daytime office parties, baby showers, or high school graduations. It can be mixed with syrups or garnishes to create zero-proof cocktails, yet it’s still something people can easily grasp. Whether in your tasting room or at events, non-alc bubbles—from grapes or apples—could be a sophisticated but approachable choice for people and occasions where alcohol doesn’t fit. 

We want to make sure your cider is accounted for in national sales data. It’s important that every cider is included so we can have an accurate picture of the cider industry and can collect data that you can use when pitching your ciders to wholesalers and retailers around the country. Please submit your new or updated SKUs to Circana today.

Please find below detailed instructions for how to submit new products to Circana (formerly IRI).

Work with your Client Service Consultant to submit image labels. If you are not a Circana client, send images directly to: DCA.ElectronicImage@circana.com.

Submission Guidelines

• New SKU – send images of packaging with UPC on the packaging; Circana does not accept images without clear UPCs.
  • If an item is a seasonal/series/rotational, provide packaging with the multiple styles/flavors to Circana. If those packaging images are not available, provide a sell sheet or proof that there are multiple styles/flavors using the same UPC. If you want a specific series name included in the coding, please include the word “series” in the packaging name, otherwise Circana will code as seasonal.
  • Image Requirements
    • Multi-packs need either a flat-file package image, two images of the front and the side of the package containing the UPC, or a flattened carton to show both front and side with UPC.
    • Multi-packs in snap ring/hicone (where individual can/bottle only option for scanning the multi-pack unit). Turn one can/bottle to show the front label and another to show the part with the UPC with both connected through the snap ring/hicone.
    • Singles need either the flat-file package/label image or two images of the front and back of the container and a clear image of the UPC code.
• Change Coding on Existing SKUs – send images of packaging and details of attribute(s) you wish to change.

Every year around this time, we review the trends, changes, growth and challenges our industry faced in the prior twelve months. It’s a time to learn and respond. As your association, we do this to understand how U.S. companies are faring and to identify ways we can support the cider industry and its diverse members in the year ahead. No doubt, 2019 was challenging, but there is plenty of reason for optimism as we enter 2020.

YEAR IN REVIEW Despite strong head winds from growth in adjacent categories, the cider industry held ground in 2019.

2017 was the year we saw explosive growth for regional cider brands. 2018 was defined by the rosé trend. 2019 was a year of resilience. If you look at how fast the flavored malt beverage sector grew this past year, it’s quite impressive that cider performed as it did.

Over a two-year view from Q3 2017 to Q3 2019, off premise cider sales grew 6%. The rosé success of 2018 was an anomaly, and the come down from the trend is minor noise in the big picture. The cider category marches upward–sustainably. Many in the media may try to focus on pockets of decline in the market, but the fact is the wins outnumber the losses.  Regional brands continue to see double-digit growth for off-premise sales across all flavor categories except pear. Stories of growth, success and rebounds are also found within national brands.

THE FUTURE 2020 is forecast to continue the beverage trends of 2019. Threats to our market share right now are fueled by a consumer desire for a drink that is refreshing, healthful, and light. Those three characters describe cider to a T. Somewhere cider lost that as part of our messaging, so this is an opportunity to remind people that cider is just that, and even better, it’s made from apples.

To help kickstart this messaging in the new year, we are highlighting 0g residual sugar ciders in our outward social media messaging for the month of January. We’re calling it Dry Cider January and we will be promoting the hashtag #pickdrycider. Our goal is to gain the attention of health-oriented consumers. Do you make a 0g residual sugar cider? Please tell us so we can include it on our list.

We’re developing additional campaigns to promote the diversity of cider and its relevance throughout the year. Cider is not a seasonal beverage, and there are many styles to enjoy.

THE DETAILS We’re proud to offer complimentary detailed quarterly market reports to our active members in partnership with Nielsen. The flavor, format and subsector comparisons are helpful for conversations with wholesalers and buyers. But the value of these reports shouldn’t overshadow the half of the equation unilluminated by them. Direct to consumer sales and indie retailers are not found in these reports, leaving many brands and success stories out of the Nielsen data. Our annual membership survey will be deployed in January. Please take a dozen or so minutes to complete it when you see our request. Cider data is hard to come by, and we are taking serious efforts to continue growing what data and information is available about the industry. Our membership survey is an important part of that.

So, what are the details for cider’s growth in 2019? We don’t have Q4 data yet, but here is what we do know for off-premise sales measured by Nielsen for 52-week period ending on 11/30/19. Total cider sales declined -3.9% in the channels measured by Nielsen, led by declines in some of the leading national brands. But also:

• Regional brand off-premise sales grew 15%
• Regional brand off-premise market share of the cider category grew from 29.4% for 2018 to 34% as of 11/30/19. (Dollar share)

What else do we know? This year we saw cidery acquisitions after not seeing any for some time. We also know that online sales through the vendor VinoShipper increased 9% in 2019. These changes represent different sides of the cider spectrum and demonstrate how intricate the cider ecosystem truly is.

Share your growth story with us. We want to know how you measured success in 2019. There will be many opportunities to reflect on 2019’s trends in our Marketing & Trends track at CiderCon® 2020. Meet us there!

RELEVANT Today, gluten-free is a common lifestyle, and cider continues to benefit from it. But cider is not just gluten-free. It’s light, crisp, refreshing, often low in or sugar free, and versatile. Low-ABV is a growing trend, and cider serves to benefit from this trend both with low-ABV ciders and with low-ABV cider cocktails. Both beer drinkers and wine drinkers are looking for lighter in flavor, lighter in body choices and our diverse category is greeting these drinkers with welcome arms.

I was at a party last week where there was no alcohol. It was a very 2019 moment, as we know more and more people are drinking less. But much to my glee, we spent about half the party discussing cider—how much people loved it, where to drink it, and exploring styles. Most people explained to me that they discovered cider due to health choices. I regretted not bringing cider to that party!

My point is that cider meets the criteria of today’s health-oriented consumer. This fact should be in all of our talking points next year, no matter what style of cider we make.

ROAD AHEAD Cider maintained its gains in a year of challenges. With the projections that we’re seeing for flavored malt beverages in 2020, it will be harder to do so next year. In light of these pressures, increasing direct-to-consumer sales is good for category and company health. If you don’t already vend online, make that your New Year’s resolution and attend ‘Clicks & Cliques: Tactics for direct-to-consumer channels’ at CiderCon®.

It may be tempting to feel competitive with our peers in the industry right now. If we stick together, celebrate our differences and diversity, and work united to share a message of category versality, healthfulness and cider pairing beautifully with food, we will surprise ourselves and our doubters. Good things come from working together.

The board and I look forward to working with our members in 2020. Let’s do this thing called cider!

Modified image Liz West by courtesy of CC license.